The US polls couldn’t have been right, just as the UK polls were never going to be right.
We haven’t seen this before.
With Brexit for a couple of weeks before, one day it would be leave, the next Stay, and so on, swapping every day.
As people realised we may actually leave, they changed their minds. Many I think wanted to voice their dissatisfaction with the status quo, but when they realised how much power their vote had, they thought maybe nearly leaving was enough of a protest to be heard, then the polls would be stay and so on.
With Trump, it was different, but the day before, the polls were just as close as the UK polls, Trump was in the perfect position. I don’t
believe he would have won if the polls were in his favour, just as we wouldn’t have voted leave if the polls said leave the day before.
To study the British polls really shows a clear poll induced oscillation.
How can the polls get it right, if they cause their own failure? I think that the two situations were both similar, stay as is, or change, and this is where polls fail, but do fine with normal politics, where its A or B.
By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com