Brexit as a moral decision

I love the U.K. and I see the E.U. as very important . I hoped that voting leave would cause the E.U. to take a look at why. I believed that if we had to leave to get it to fix itself then it was worth the sacrifice. It looked like it may, but now […]

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I love the U.K. and I see the E.U. as very important .

I hoped that voting leave would cause the E.U. to take a look at why.

I believed that if we had to leave to get it to fix itself then it was worth the sacrifice.

It looked like it may, but now it has turned to fear which is causing the opposite.

It makes me angry when remain voters assume that I did this because of immigration, that their reasons were somehow better or more justified than mine, because they really weren’t.  I believe we can survive and thrive out of the E.U., but not as we are going, as ministers don’t quite get it.

I believe that us leaving is a price worth paying to cause the E.U. to fix itself, but im afraid it hasn’t helped.

I wish the vote was seen as not one person voting leave and one stay, but as the countries unhappiness with aspects of the E.U., its reservations about the direction  of the E.U. and yet  hope for it. the countries almost unified percentages showing agreement across the whole of the U.K..

The media (i watch the BBC)  is immoral and hugely damaging  at best, and should think first a lot more.

Even Theresa May is talking of differences.

my writing is falling apart…note to self, fix….never time to as more stuff comes…arrggghh

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

Expectation in Brexit and US Election was the real killer!

  1. Whatever they do, they can’t change the result, but maybe they want to send a message that they shouldn’t take it for granted and not to get to complacent, knowing it was safe to do so.
  2. Is it necessary to vote at all if voting for the inevitable anyway, as it is
  3. inevitable?

So those supporting the expected winner either vote for the opposite, or not at all!!

Have a look at the LATimes Polls.  These show that expectation is a dangerous thing:- (From http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/)

Who do you think will win?

capture

Who would you vote for?

We ask voters what the chance is that they will vote for Trump, Clinton or someone else, using a 0-100 scale. The overall level of support for each candidate reflects the weighted average of those responses.

capture2

LA Times usc-presidential-poll-dashboard

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

 

Bad Analysts Beat Good

Would you hire an analyst who predicted Brexit and Trump?chart_249x167

Or one that got it wrong, but understandably so from the polls?

How about one who didn’t make any predictions until the day before each, and then put their neck on the line and got it right?

An analyst goes with the probabilities and polls and social effects.

But the day before each, I’d like to explain why an analyst should have got it right both times.

With Brexit, the polls flipped on a daily basis before the vote.  People backed off when they felt the responsibility of their voting, and that leave may happen, playing it safe.  The day before, the polls ended on Stay.  It seemed likely that people would continue their pattern and vote leave, after realising it was unlikely again, and they did.

With Trump, there was more to it(as there was with Brexit actually), but the polls reached a point just short of 50:50, but nearer than ever, and following Brexit thinking, as there was no more campaigning to influence things, Trump could only improve upon that as people saw it as unlikely and their priorities changed in their minds from polling thinking to a state that had been improving his   ratings as the time got closer and other considerations became involved.  From a long time before, or a foreign perspective, the least controversial is always best, but you aren’t thinking about what is best for your country and that can only improve the alternatives chances, and this will rise over time and shoot up a little more come actual voting.  He could only have done better, and as he was predicted to lose by the polls, there was no pull back by anyone thinking that if they got it wrong they would be responsible, and so change is always more likely than before.

Both involved many types of voters with falling into many groups and much more complicated than this explanation.

I made a prediction for both the day before and got both correct.  I wouldn’t have before, because it wasnt possible to make the right choice before that without making the least probable choice and so being bad at your job.

Now analysts havent self corrected properly, and explain what happened incorrectly from a simplistic perspective, biased from the view that madness won out and so defied logic, as it keeps them feeling good analysts.  So they simplify the voters and make them self-destructive badly educated voters, rather than look into the various voters that interacted and their opinions and perceptions.  There are an amazing amount of interesting factors that were involved that provide a lot of insight into future election success and failure and do’s and don’t, once you understand this subject properly.

James Cook UKThinkTank.com

Leaving the EU to save it – Brexit

You wouldn’t believe that Europe was more important to some leave voters than any stay voters?

If you are worried about populism, you have seen self destructive illogical behaviour recently.  Analysts got it all wrong and explained it as the less educated choosing racist or nationalist views over self benefit.  You can see this too.
So you wouldn’t believe that some of these people put you above themselves?  You wouldn’t believe that Europe was more important to some leave voters than any stay voters?  What if your views had prevented these peoples sacrifice from being understood?  What if you were the biased one??

Nobody believed it would happen.  Not even those that voted for it.

Maybe someone would vote for something they didnt want??  Maybe to send a message?  Given the result being unchangeable, maybe rather than voting for, voting against could send a message that you had reservations.

What if the unexpected then happened? You voted for what you didnt want but didnt expect it?  Explain that without feeling silly.

What if then you hoped that the cost was worth it if it made a difference, but what if the message never arrived and  the sacrifice was for nothing?

A danger is to not see that maybe people cause what they dont want, to lose any message, to treat simply and allow others to hold it out as an example for their right wing parties.

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Brexit as a moral decision

I love the U.K. and I see the E.U. as very important .

I hoped that voting leave would cause the E.U. to take a look at why.

I believed that if we had to leave to get it to fix itself then it was worth the sacrifice.

It looked like it may, but now it has turned to fear which is causing the opposite.

It makes me angry when remain voters assume that I did this because of immigration, that their reasons were somehow better or more justified than mine, because they really weren’t.  I believe we can survive and thrive out of the E.U., but not as we are going, asministers don’t quite get it.

Ibelieve that us leaving is a price worth paying to cause the E.U. to fix itself, but im afraid it hasn’t helped.

I wish the vote was seen as not one person voting leave and one stay, but as the countries unhappiness with aspects of the E.U., its reservations about the direction  of the E.U. and yet  hope for it. the countries almost unified percentages showing agreement across the whole of the U.K..

The media (i watch the BBC)  is immoral and hugely damaging  at best, and should think first a lot more.

Even Theresa May is talking of differences.

my writing is falling apart…note to self, fix….never time to as more stuff comes…arrggghh

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

Brexit/Trump hole to fill

Both are similar.

Teressa  May has a patient public until March that I fear will suprise her then in a way never seen before.

I havent heard anyone really on TV that quite gets it.

She is assuming our old pre EU playbook is fine as long as Brexit is addressed but going back to running ourselves like we did wont quite do it.  It will fix Brexit and continue as we did before but just like we left the EU in place almost.  Its how vanilla it will continue afterwards.  What we need is more than before, and it would be so easy and cheap to do.  No leader will cure it and leaders will just swap quickly as nothing fills the gap.

We have an excellent start after the Olympics and certain other things, but the same medals in the next Olympics or even more will never be as good as the chance now.

I voted leave, then thought  “omg, im responsible if it fails”, then realised we were best off after all as the EU changed, and now just am amazed that we dont take this chance

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

Trump & Brexit Analysts Wrong

Trump voters are less educated, white racist, sexists who shouldnt have a vote?

Brexit voters are less well educated, racist nationalists?

Right????

Russia changed votes? No! If the media had leaked E-mails, there would be no problem.  No extra votes were entered, or people were mindwashed.  Voters still voted based on facts and arrived at a result.  Its easy if you don’t agree with a result to simplify your opponents, and their motivations, and its easy to assume that it was not what should have happened and polluted, but there was no manipulation of actual votes. Often things have a way of doing the opposite, and making Trump win in polls before the election would have possibly resulted in a lose by motivating more opposition voters, as more Trump and less opposition were because the polls fell the other way before.

Someone that doesnt agree with your well considered, well thought out opinion must obviously be more stupid and wrong.  This is dangerous, because now right wing parties in Europe compare themselves and quote Brexit because they assume it was purely about immigration for everyone.  Did anyone vote for Brexit where immigration wasnt their reason?

Sure, I did, and a lot of other people did that I know, infact immigration was never discussed in any of my conversations.   I was close on staying and going, not brave enough to have my vote causing a leave if it went wrong and it was me responsible, yet not happy voting to stay amd leave things to continue as they were without scaring the EU into change.   My decision was so balanced that the tiniest little comments were enough to push it one way or the other, and this was the same for most people I know and consider balanced.  It was a huge responsibility and you could see by the polls that oscillated daily from stay to go or back.  Im not happy with the direction the EU is going, but maybe not so much to leave yet.  So when MEPs spoke about preventing referendums even casually, it would force my answer towards leave now as if maybe it being too long and too hard to leave again if asked again.

Did anyone vote for something they didnt want?  Sure, i think it was a huge factor in Brexit.  But then afterwards, it seemed maybe that the EU looked less safe than before.

The whole U.K. said the same and almost in identicle proportions, almost 50% said  “we have severe reservations about the direction the EU is going”,  and I think that is what many wanted to say.

There is so much talk that Scotland didnt vote to leave.

The media concentrate on this when we all were saying exactly the same thing.

We all agreed so amazingly closely as a country, that it shows how similar all of our concerns are, as the percentages varied by no more less than 15.3% across all of  Scotland, London, N.I., Wales, England.

It shows how closely we all are in agreement and that we are so similar that our thoughts and concerns are expressed in the results almost identically.

You think theres no way you would have voted the other way, right??

What you don’t see is that you could have voted a way that seems awful to you.

If i can show you how close you were to voting the other way then maybe i can get you to see what this really means.

You see, its not the answer, its the question.  You have been answering a different question.

Maybe you voted stay, but what if the question was “leave EU and manage yourself from now on, like you always did, or be under EU management a control and eventually unable to control your own financial future, because the country will never be able to change the result, so this is permanent, never will you or what was the UK be asked again. The U.K. will therefore become more and more part of a U.S.E.U.”.  Now, what is safest, most predictable, and best for your country?  When the EU finally collapses, and its army and your finances are not your own,   argggghhhhh…….Essentially, it all comes from a slight change to the question, whether it is the last ever, only question there will ever be, whether it is up to you to get this right for everyone and their grand children.  To be cautious is now to look after yourself rather than go with the unknown.    Well, how long was it until this referendum?  So how long will it be until the next?  Will leaving be possible in another 20 years?

 

 

Area Remain Leave
England
(including Gibraltar)
46.7% 53.3%
Northern Ireland 55.8% 44.2%
Scotland 62.0% 38.0%
Wales 47.5% 52.5%
Greater London 59.9% 40.1%
Birmingham 49.6% 50.4%

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com