The lessons to be learned
- Poll created 50:50 Oscillation, as people change minds as they see their vote as more powerful and feel more empowered, and responsible for the outcome. Often these swinging voters see their vote as a sign of protest but worry about protesting too much and maybe causing change by winning, thus fixing a problem that means winning was the wrong choice, ie many oscillatory patterns.
- Stay as is always have a lower turn out. More likely to see voting as less important.
- Threats of consequences often have the opposite to intended effect. A European ministers comments caused a friend to immediately vote leave, and i’ve heard that Obama’s comments caused similar. People don’t like to let people that make threats to feel they were scared or influenced by them and that they arent scared. A very bad move. If I tell you to vote A or I’ll make your life hard, and it looks like A could win, then you may feel that I will think you feared me if A wins, and angrily rush to vote anything but A.
- Talk of preventing further votes or that vote shouldn’t have been allowed cause people to believe they will never get another chance and so the question becomes “Remain the same forever or change now“. Now it became an impossible choice, almost flipping the question around to become will things ever become a problem, or do we almost stay as we are by getting out, as out and in are closer than forever whatever.
By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com