4 Lessons of Brexit Referendum for all

The lessons to be learned

  • Poll created 50:50 Oscillation, as people change minds as they see their vote as more powerful and feel more empowered, and responsible for the outcome. Often these swinging voters see their vote as a sign of protest but worry about protesting too much and maybe causing change by winning, thus fixing a problem that means winning was the wrong choice, ie many oscillatory patterns.
  • Stay as is always have a lower turn out. More likely to see voting as less important.
  • Threats of consequences often have the opposite to intended effect.  A European ministers comments caused a friend to immediately vote leave, and i’ve heard that Obama’s comments caused similar.  People don’t like to let people that make threats to feel they were scared or influenced by them and that they arent scared.  A very bad move. If I tell you to vote A or I’ll make your life hard, and it looks like A could win, then you may feel that I will think you feared me if A wins, and angrily rush to vote anything but A.
  • Talk of preventing further votes or that vote shouldn’t have been allowed cause people to believe they will never get another chance and so the question becomes “Remain the same forever or change now“.  Now it became an impossible choice, almost flipping the question around to become will things ever become a problem, or do we almost stay as we are by getting out, as out and in are closer than forever whatever.

 

The 50% Opinion Poll Effect

Camerons no 2nd referendum meant last chance?

A little love could have prevented Brexit

4 Lessons of Brexit for all

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By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

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Referendums undemocratic

Referendums are undemocratic in several ways that should be addressed before another occurs

They need support to operate fairly

Support of facts, Support of intrinsic bias towards change, Careful balance when repeated that works if change is voted to keep them going afterwards for chance to go back.   This is only necessary if more than one referendum occurs, as then  probability breaks down causing complete failure by inevitable change.

political should be accompanied by logical fact, huge vacuum of knowledge shown by false reasoning for a choice based on premises that couldn’t occur, ie reasons for leaving based on an idea that undoing back to common market and kep that whilst saving all our contributions and controlling borders. A failure of vote stay was to explain what it all meant

referendums are undemocratic in several ways that should be addressed before another

Are people more likely not to vote if the vote would be to stay as is? definitely

so it follows that change will always get more voters to vote than stay same.

how to get a fair balance? well mandatory voting like Aus would work.

there intrinsically feels less need to vote to keep the same, it feels stable, and i feel less responsible for an outcome of the same than someone who votes change. If a public doesn’t feel at least as powerful as they are then they will tend towards not voting. It’s arguable that it is a position that naturally reduces this feeling
stay as is more likely to be under represented, as stay as is will stay as is without my effort to keep no change and cause nothing. a referendum should be mandatory for those on the electoral register and other sane ppl from now, Aus model. Only fair way.

it is arguable that minority choosers really get a chance to increase hugely in refs, as a vote is not going to be lost

absolute failures of will can result from bad refs

referendums that repeat must repeat both outcomes or not at all, or made to be opposite to undo.
as probability favours inevitable change, hence unfair

referendums need supporting conditions to be fair:- equal voter motivation, logical result inf, guaranteed negative repeatability for repeated ones or no repeat………..decided beforehand

 

The 50% Opinion Poll Effect

Camerons no 2nd referendum meant last chance?

A little love could have prevented Brexit

4 Lessons of Brexit for all

Search Google

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com