The US polls couldn’t have been right, just as the UK polls were never going to be right.

The US polls couldn’t have been right, just as the UK polls were never going to be right.

We haven’t seen this before.

With Brexit for a couple of weeks before, one day it would be leave, the next Stay, and so on, swapping every day.

As people realised we may actually leave, they changed their minds.  Many I think wanted to voice their dissatisfaction with the status quo, but when they realised how much power their vote had, they thought maybe nearly leaving was enough of a protest to be heard, then the polls would be stay and so on.

With Trump, it was different, but the day before, the polls were just as close as the UK polls, Trump was in the perfect position.  I don’t

believe he would have won if the polls were in his favour,  just as we wouldn’t have voted leave if the polls said leave the day before.

To study the British polls really shows a clear poll induced oscillation.

How can the polls get it right, if they cause their own failure?   I think that the two situations were both similar, stay as is, or change, and this is where polls fail, but do fine with normal politics, where its A or B.

 

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

Advertisements

Theresa’s time is short, even if she succeeds, because she is missing the real message, and just addressing Brexit. Trump, and the EU have similar problems.

The next year in the U.K. will not be as Theresa may predicts, infact, there are a number of what seem unlikely things that will happen if some basic remedies are not applied, of which, none will as they are not anything to do with the perceived current political situation.  Essentially the Trump win has put the UK government under greater expectations, that we wanted more than Brexit, and I doubt any government has a long life if it doesnt do a few simple things.  The UK just doesnt get it at all.
The next 2 years in the U.S.A. depend on factors noone has even considered too.
The 2 countries fates are intertwined, not in terms of trade, but in terms of accelerants for these 2 counties futures, based on a kind of social perception of factors not even understood or imagined by either country, small, easily mitigated factors, but factors that will not be considered, as they are new, never considered or imagined before factors, that are key to both situations yet so abstract that they are unlikely to ever be found or considered. Yet they are simple root factors that spell the end of governments before any imagine, a kind of snowball effect……one day theresa mays government will be fine, the next, after brexit in may/june, and certainly otherwise, something never considered will happen, the worst case scenario being unprecedented in British history, the best case, being a new political party suddenly coming into power from nowhere at a rate undreamt of, other alternatives just increase the final effect, such as a switch to Corbyn, making it more devastating.
The next few months for Europe, depend upon both of these to an extent, and the EU’s interactions could be very unexpected for the EU and more so the USA. An effect of the EUs own making, since badly handling Brexit, that may hurt it a lot, nothing to do with the UK as such, but a kind of reaction that damages itself, caused by attitudes, not by trade or UK-EU changes or interactions, something internal.
The EU’s future is different from what people may imagine…..think 2 steps ahead.
The thing is, deep down, everyone wants the same thing, but the UK and USA’s directions may seem opposed to others, yet these are the symptoms of the unifying desire of all, its just this desire may manifest itself in different ways depending upon the most obvious way to achieve them through voting.
The desire isnt even stopping immigration, however, that seems to be the fix that logically could work, so people can focus on it.
The desire is a desire that has had no previous incarnation, name, or discussion, and is not at all obvious, but when it is explained it becomes ridiculously obvious, in a how did noone mention this before way. It is new, imagine nudges before nudges, you dont think you need anything because you know what exists isnt what you need. But when you realise, you wonder how you survived without it, and why something so cheap and easy wasnt ever thought of before.

 

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

What logically all UK public want from Brexit

Logic you can’t argue with surely?

1.  Whether for or against nobody can say they don’t want the best for the UK from leaving Europe.

2.  It would be naive to think the majority of people didn’t like some of what the EU gave us.

3.  It would probably also be naive to think a majority of people didn’t dislike other aspects of the EU.

4.  To leave Europe and revert to a pre-Europe state would remove the unfavourable aspects of the EU but also the favoured. This would effectively be improving the UK by removing the unpleasant bits, whilst worsen it by removing the good bits, effectively diluting at least some of the improvements. This is illogical to anyone who doesn’t want the UK to make the most of what must be seen as an opportunity if it is inevitable, which it seems it is.

5.  When leaving Europe, it thus makes sense to find out what the public rate as the most positive aspects and attempt to keep/replicate these with sensible thought as to achieving these.

 

A case in mind would be large projects and regeneration projects around the country, which seemed very positive and liked by most.

It seems logical to make this break into an opportunity to fix the broken and improve the good, to make us attractive to business, and modern thinking, to make us shine. We would want to trade with Europe and others easily without having our own barriers, and maybe, just maybe countries would want what they have with Europe but without the unnecessary red-tape, a Europe light, but now I digress.

 

 

Google

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

4 Lessons of Brexit Referendum for all

The lessons to be learned

  • Poll created 50:50 Oscillation, as people change minds as they see their vote as more powerful and feel more empowered, and responsible for the outcome. Often these swinging voters see their vote as a sign of protest but worry about protesting too much and maybe causing change by winning, thus fixing a problem that means winning was the wrong choice, ie many oscillatory patterns.
  • Stay as is always have a lower turn out. More likely to see voting as less important.
  • Threats of consequences often have the opposite to intended effect.  A European ministers comments caused a friend to immediately vote leave, and i’ve heard that Obama’s comments caused similar.  People don’t like to let people that make threats to feel they were scared or influenced by them and that they arent scared.  A very bad move. If I tell you to vote A or I’ll make your life hard, and it looks like A could win, then you may feel that I will think you feared me if A wins, and angrily rush to vote anything but A.
  • Talk of preventing further votes or that vote shouldn’t have been allowed cause people to believe they will never get another chance and so the question becomes “Remain the same forever or change now“.  Now it became an impossible choice, almost flipping the question around to become will things ever become a problem, or do we almost stay as we are by getting out, as out and in are closer than forever whatever.

 

The 50% Opinion Poll Effect

Camerons no 2nd referendum meant last chance?

A little love could have prevented Brexit

4 Lessons of Brexit for all

Search Google

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

Referendums undemocratic

Referendums are undemocratic in several ways that should be addressed before another occurs

They need support to operate fairly

Support of facts, Support of intrinsic bias towards change, Careful balance when repeated that works if change is voted to keep them going afterwards for chance to go back.   This is only necessary if more than one referendum occurs, as then  probability breaks down causing complete failure by inevitable change.

political should be accompanied by logical fact, huge vacuum of knowledge shown by false reasoning for a choice based on premises that couldn’t occur, ie reasons for leaving based on an idea that undoing back to common market and kep that whilst saving all our contributions and controlling borders. A failure of vote stay was to explain what it all meant

referendums are undemocratic in several ways that should be addressed before another

Are people more likely not to vote if the vote would be to stay as is? definitely

so it follows that change will always get more voters to vote than stay same.

how to get a fair balance? well mandatory voting like Aus would work.

there intrinsically feels less need to vote to keep the same, it feels stable, and i feel less responsible for an outcome of the same than someone who votes change. If a public doesn’t feel at least as powerful as they are then they will tend towards not voting. It’s arguable that it is a position that naturally reduces this feeling
stay as is more likely to be under represented, as stay as is will stay as is without my effort to keep no change and cause nothing. a referendum should be mandatory for those on the electoral register and other sane ppl from now, Aus model. Only fair way.

it is arguable that minority choosers really get a chance to increase hugely in refs, as a vote is not going to be lost

absolute failures of will can result from bad refs

referendums that repeat must repeat both outcomes or not at all, or made to be opposite to undo.
as probability favours inevitable change, hence unfair

referendums need supporting conditions to be fair:- equal voter motivation, logical result inf, guaranteed negative repeatability for repeated ones or no repeat………..decided beforehand

 

The 50% Opinion Poll Effect

Camerons no 2nd referendum meant last chance?

A little love could have prevented Brexit

4 Lessons of Brexit for all

Search Google

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com