What election results tell us

France

UK Referendum

USA Trump

In each case, the result shows people want change.  They want something other than what they see as a system that is only superficially dependent upon them, during elections, but the choices are “all the same”.  What people mean is that after elections, the people’s wishes are not in mirrored by their elected proxy, and it is really is far from what they see as democratic.  The public are a means to an end for most politicians.   They are useful as a tool when they want what the politician wants, to back up their argument, but for the most part are superfluous.

When the public are least likely to agree with a course of action, the more chance they wont be considered worth consulting.  The politicians know this, but don’t see it as necessary.

The public should be represented by their representative, in a way that mirrors how they would decide themselves.  It doesn’t require consultation necessarily always, if the politician does as they know they should really.

BUT, the public may not be able to choose without enough understanding in some cases,  is the argument that some MPs may offer.  In some cases this may be true, and can be fixed easily as you will see.    It also is rather a dangerous argument, as it may make the politician assume they know enough too easily,and become applied always afterwards to other situations.   What we need is a way for them to see what  the public who understand would decide.  It is often easy to assume if someone doesn’t agree that they aren’t up to speed, and so dismiss those that may understand better than yourself.

 

 

The UK Un-Constitution fixing Government

How the act of deciding not to have a written constitution may solve the problems better

chbrain2“There was recently a definite movement towards something that has at the moment been named a written constitution”

“It seems that some feel a need for this thing”

“But what is it we actually need?”

“There are definite arguments against a written constitution as well as for”

“This hole that is wished filled, is for something, but a written constitution is not the answer to the problem.  What is the problem that some feel needs filling?  Is there a better solution.  One that looks at the problem at a different level, and so keeps our flexible system as is, yet provides more clarity and is felt more useful, more important, more relevant by the public and the government”

“No change at all to our constitution,  but a meta-constitution.  A definition of terms, such as government, democracy, MP, Minister, PM, Party, Public, Elected official etc.   A list of flaws, maybe even views of each from each others perspective.  No views considered wrong to start with.  An ideal direct pure democracy, as defined as everyone deciding directly in every matter, and the majority decision being followed.  But we have a practical democracy of elected proxies.  They are our trusted choices that we elect to do as we would wish, if we had the time to research every matter fully and had full knowledge of the matter we were voting upon and its implications.  They should do as we would, if we all could.  ”

“MPs should vote as their electorate would, if they all had full knowledge.  Now, sure, MPs shouldnt necessarily vote as their electorate see things, and their argument that they have to protect us from bad decisions is valid,  however, it is dangerous.  They should be voting as their electorate would wish if fully informed.  An attitude that they are there to decide for us, because we are incapable, is a problem.  The assumption that they are in full knowledge of the facts and their implications is maybe taken too quickly or easily when they see or believe they are ‘above’ their electorate.  It can lead to a belief that if they are better, they are fit to decide.  This may prevent them from seeing that they need to understand the problem and its implications properly.  It can lead to a kind of arrogance perhaps.”

“When people see their MPs voting in a way that is obviously not as a proxy for a fully informed public (ie. when the subject is more straightforward, so that more of the population see their decision is not as theirs would be),  then the public see this as a kind of arrogant abuse of their position as a servant, as a proxy, as a trusted representative, and often it seems as though their MP believes they are incapable of being in the position of one of many that is used to shape that MPs decision.  The MP is now on their own, their own proxy, and talk of an electorate is just that of convenience when it suits them.  This is a problem”

“I suppose I am conservative in my views, but here the problem looks worse most often.  One event is just that, one event, but several, slightly suspicious events, becomes a pattern.  Unfortunately every small thing adds up and paints a picture.  The last PM can give honours to his favourite dog walker if he wants, he’s done his part, and he tried, and it didn’t go his way, and well, I can kind of see he tried, and well, he felt he did his best, and now he is off, and so why not look after those close.  Then deciding staying to represent his constituents was what he wanted, even after being PM, but oh, no cabinet position for me? actually, im out of here.  One thing alone is nothing, but things add up, and tar all im afraid.  I can’t say those actions were a problem for him.  They were a problem for the party, because they were the honesty at the end, that lingers on and ends up adding to the conservative picture, that picture of how the world sees conservative MPs, as a mix of all the stories of all of them, averaged out.  I see real hope with our new MP,  I really do.  She is the once in a lifetime PM for me.  I really know she sees the world how I want her to, and I hear her saying what I was just thinking.   I just hope it doesn’t all collapse around impatience.  Theres so much she could do, that is so easy.   We do a lot, that people don’t know about.  We have so much good news we havent taken advantage of. Anyway, I digress…”

“So, back to the Meta-Constitution….   A statement of definitions, goals, roles, flaws, fairly expressed, all sides views are important, government need the tools, the ability to work better, more enjoyably, more efficiently.  This should address it all.  A statement of bounds, the ideal, where questions and decisions are worded unfairly, or good bundled with a little bad to get bad through.  The government actually do quite well digitally, and yet, there are small areas where it could all be made to shine that they just miss.  The PM really is sitting on gold.  You send a message to government and you know you may as well be deleting it instead and saving everyone the time of not reading it. They don’t want to read most the almost identical nonsense emails, i suppose.  It would be so easy to cut public emails down vastly, and have less to read, yet everybody get more out of the system.   As a software developer,  I can see several places where almost nothing would become everything.  Where it can all be put together.  God knows why it hasn’t.  And I digress again…..”

Shelved Constitution

You have shelved the written constitution.  I understand the thinking behind one but suggest it wasnt the answer, there is a better one.  I suggest we solve the real problem in a better easier way that is more effective and popular for you.

Better way and why

We need a contract, definition, or a statement of role, goals or purpose, and I will explain why this is what will fill that public need, and make you popular, but allow you more control.

The real way

A definition of our representative democracy, MP’s, government, and publics’ purpose and goals.
A definition of a democracy, a representative democracy, electorate’s, MP’s, and government minister and employees purpose, and maybe a discussion of real world flaws

Public problem with government

The real problem is that government still behaves as they did 100 years ago, as if they have the power over life and death of the public rather than as working on behalf of the public.
People understand what democracy is defined as, and see that is not what they are getting.  Their MPs don’t act as their proxies, even as a proxy for a public in full possession of the facts to decide correctly.  They consider themselves the last line of defence of the public choosing badly, which prevents introspection into their own lack of understanding.

How to not do it

MPs like Arlene Foster who put herself and her job above peace, and play chicken with NI.
Her fault or not, her job is to look after NI above all else.  She is not in employment court, yet she treats it like that.

 

 

James Cook

UKThinkTank.com


 

Expectation in Brexit and US Election was the real killer!

  1. Whatever they do, they can’t change the result, but maybe they want to send a message that they shouldn’t take it for granted and not to get to complacent, knowing it was safe to do so.
  2. Is it necessary to vote at all if voting for the inevitable anyway, as it is
  3. inevitable?

So those supporting the expected winner either vote for the opposite, or not at all!!

Have a look at the LATimes Polls.  These show that expectation is a dangerous thing:- (From http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/)

Who do you think will win?

capture

Who would you vote for?

We ask voters what the chance is that they will vote for Trump, Clinton or someone else, using a 0-100 scale. The overall level of support for each candidate reflects the weighted average of those responses.

capture2

LA Times usc-presidential-poll-dashboard

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

 

Leaving the EU to save it – Brexit

You wouldn’t believe that Europe was more important to some leave voters than any stay voters?

If you are worried about populism, you have seen self destructive illogical behaviour recently.  Analysts got it all wrong and explained it as the less educated choosing racist or nationalist views over self benefit.  You can see this too.
So you wouldn’t believe that some of these people put you above themselves?  You wouldn’t believe that Europe was more important to some leave voters than any stay voters?  What if your views had prevented these peoples sacrifice from being understood?  What if you were the biased one??

Nobody believed it would happen.  Not even those that voted for it.

Maybe someone would vote for something they didnt want??  Maybe to send a message?  Given the result being unchangeable, maybe rather than voting for, voting against could send a message that you had reservations.

What if the unexpected then happened? You voted for what you didnt want but didnt expect it?  Explain that without feeling silly.

What if then you hoped that the cost was worth it if it made a difference, but what if the message never arrived and  the sacrifice was for nothing?

A danger is to not see that maybe people cause what they dont want, to lose any message, to treat simply and allow others to hold it out as an example for their right wing parties.

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump & Brexit Analysts Wrong

Trump voters are less educated, white racist, sexists who shouldnt have a vote?

Brexit voters are less well educated, racist nationalists?

Right????

Russia changed votes? No! If the media had leaked E-mails, there would be no problem.  No extra votes were entered, or people were mindwashed.  Voters still voted based on facts and arrived at a result.  Its easy if you don’t agree with a result to simplify your opponents, and their motivations, and its easy to assume that it was not what should have happened and polluted, but there was no manipulation of actual votes. Often things have a way of doing the opposite, and making Trump win in polls before the election would have possibly resulted in a lose by motivating more opposition voters, as more Trump and less opposition were because the polls fell the other way before.

Someone that doesnt agree with your well considered, well thought out opinion must obviously be more stupid and wrong.  This is dangerous, because now right wing parties in Europe compare themselves and quote Brexit because they assume it was purely about immigration for everyone.  Did anyone vote for Brexit where immigration wasnt their reason?

Sure, I did, and a lot of other people did that I know, infact immigration was never discussed in any of my conversations.   I was close on staying and going, not brave enough to have my vote causing a leave if it went wrong and it was me responsible, yet not happy voting to stay amd leave things to continue as they were without scaring the EU into change.   My decision was so balanced that the tiniest little comments were enough to push it one way or the other, and this was the same for most people I know and consider balanced.  It was a huge responsibility and you could see by the polls that oscillated daily from stay to go or back.  Im not happy with the direction the EU is going, but maybe not so much to leave yet.  So when MEPs spoke about preventing referendums even casually, it would force my answer towards leave now as if maybe it being too long and too hard to leave again if asked again.

Did anyone vote for something they didnt want?  Sure, i think it was a huge factor in Brexit.  But then afterwards, it seemed maybe that the EU looked less safe than before.

The whole U.K. said the same and almost in identicle proportions, almost 50% said  “we have severe reservations about the direction the EU is going”,  and I think that is what many wanted to say.

There is so much talk that Scotland didnt vote to leave.

The media concentrate on this when we all were saying exactly the same thing.

We all agreed so amazingly closely as a country, that it shows how similar all of our concerns are, as the percentages varied by no more less than 15.3% across all of  Scotland, London, N.I., Wales, England.

It shows how closely we all are in agreement and that we are so similar that our thoughts and concerns are expressed in the results almost identically.

You think theres no way you would have voted the other way, right??

What you don’t see is that you could have voted a way that seems awful to you.

If i can show you how close you were to voting the other way then maybe i can get you to see what this really means.

You see, its not the answer, its the question.  You have been answering a different question.

Maybe you voted stay, but what if the question was “leave EU and manage yourself from now on, like you always did, or be under EU management a control and eventually unable to control your own financial future, because the country will never be able to change the result, so this is permanent, never will you or what was the UK be asked again. The U.K. will therefore become more and more part of a U.S.E.U.”.  Now, what is safest, most predictable, and best for your country?  When the EU finally collapses, and its army and your finances are not your own,   argggghhhhh…….Essentially, it all comes from a slight change to the question, whether it is the last ever, only question there will ever be, whether it is up to you to get this right for everyone and their grand children.  To be cautious is now to look after yourself rather than go with the unknown.    Well, how long was it until this referendum?  So how long will it be until the next?  Will leaving be possible in another 20 years?

 

 

Area Remain Leave
England
(including Gibraltar)
46.7% 53.3%
Northern Ireland 55.8% 44.2%
Scotland 62.0% 38.0%
Wales 47.5% 52.5%
Greater London 59.9% 40.1%
Birmingham 49.6% 50.4%

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

The US polls couldn’t have been right, just as the UK polls were never going to be right.

The US polls couldn’t have been right, just as the UK polls were never going to be right.

We haven’t seen this before.

With Brexit for a couple of weeks before, one day it would be leave, the next Stay, and so on, swapping every day.

As people realised we may actually leave, they changed their minds.  Many I think wanted to voice their dissatisfaction with the status quo, but when they realised how much power their vote had, they thought maybe nearly leaving was enough of a protest to be heard, then the polls would be stay and so on.

With Trump, it was different, but the day before, the polls were just as close as the UK polls, Trump was in the perfect position.  I don’t

believe he would have won if the polls were in his favour,  just as we wouldn’t have voted leave if the polls said leave the day before.

To study the British polls really shows a clear poll induced oscillation.

How can the polls get it right, if they cause their own failure?   I think that the two situations were both similar, stay as is, or change, and this is where polls fail, but do fine with normal politics, where its A or B.

 

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com

Theresa’s time is short, even if she succeeds, because she is missing the real message, and just addressing Brexit. Trump, and the EU have similar problems.

The next year in the U.K. will not be as Theresa may predicts, infact, there are a number of what seem unlikely things that will happen if some basic remedies are not applied, of which, none will as they are not anything to do with the perceived current political situation.  Essentially the Trump win has put the UK government under greater expectations, that we wanted more than Brexit, and I doubt any government has a long life if it doesnt do a few simple things.  The UK just doesnt get it at all.
The next 2 years in the U.S.A. depend on factors noone has even considered too.
The 2 countries fates are intertwined, not in terms of trade, but in terms of accelerants for these 2 counties futures, based on a kind of social perception of factors not even understood or imagined by either country, small, easily mitigated factors, but factors that will not be considered, as they are new, never considered or imagined before factors, that are key to both situations yet so abstract that they are unlikely to ever be found or considered. Yet they are simple root factors that spell the end of governments before any imagine, a kind of snowball effect……one day theresa mays government will be fine, the next, after brexit in may/june, and certainly otherwise, something never considered will happen, the worst case scenario being unprecedented in British history, the best case, being a new political party suddenly coming into power from nowhere at a rate undreamt of, other alternatives just increase the final effect, such as a switch to Corbyn, making it more devastating.
The next few months for Europe, depend upon both of these to an extent, and the EU’s interactions could be very unexpected for the EU and more so the USA. An effect of the EUs own making, since badly handling Brexit, that may hurt it a lot, nothing to do with the UK as such, but a kind of reaction that damages itself, caused by attitudes, not by trade or UK-EU changes or interactions, something internal.
The EU’s future is different from what people may imagine…..think 2 steps ahead.
The thing is, deep down, everyone wants the same thing, but the UK and USA’s directions may seem opposed to others, yet these are the symptoms of the unifying desire of all, its just this desire may manifest itself in different ways depending upon the most obvious way to achieve them through voting.
The desire isnt even stopping immigration, however, that seems to be the fix that logically could work, so people can focus on it.
The desire is a desire that has had no previous incarnation, name, or discussion, and is not at all obvious, but when it is explained it becomes ridiculously obvious, in a how did noone mention this before way. It is new, imagine nudges before nudges, you dont think you need anything because you know what exists isnt what you need. But when you realise, you wonder how you survived without it, and why something so cheap and easy wasnt ever thought of before.

 

By Jim Cook of UK ThinkTank .com